Monthly Investment Note: October 2023
The House View Summary
As the leaves turn a different shade of green & we start to light the fires indoors, heading into the final quarter of the year, we are starting to see a change in sentiment in Markets.
In September, EU inflation (HICP) across the bloc, reduced by 0.9% to 4.3% (from 5.2% in August), US inflation remained flat at 3.7% and Irish inflation actually rose slightly to 5% (from 4.9%). The conclusion from these data as articulated by the respective central bank presidents is that the “job is not yet done”; the “job” being restoring economies back closer to the normalised inflation rate of 2%.
How this is achieved creates a conundrum for central bankers, where on the one hand, they have a remit to bring inflation under control and on the other, they don’t wish to send their economies into a tailspin of recession. The so-called soft-landing option is their desirable outcome and in the US (at least) this might seem plausible, while in the EU, this might pose more challenging given that some economies (Germany) are already in recession. The big question on everyone lips at the moment is whether both the ECB and the FED will hike another 0.25% in interest rates or hold the current rate level for longer.
Technically, there are plausible arguments for both cases, but I want to drill down to the case of hiking rates. As a business, with the increased rate hikes, the cost of credit increases. This places pressures on margins, leading to lower earnings which inevitably leads to a price correction of publicly quoted companies, seen in September across most developed markets. All is not rosy on the Sovereign side too, as higher interest rates lead to higher yields (the US 10 years Yield is 4.91%; its highest since 2007), which means higher debt servicing costs and less liquidity for national investments.
Extending this further and incorporating the stubborn high (core) inflation we are still seeing, both industry and governments are now being hit on both sides at the same time. With the costs of raw materials and labour increased significantly over the past two years, margins and returns on capital are again lowered. Finally, with inflation still high but relatively stabilised, we are now seeing a potential shortfall in oil production. Should the tragic events of the middle East not be resolved, this will exacerbate. Oil has already pushed passed the $90 per barrel range, a psychological trigger for alert with investors.
So, what does all this mean for investors? Year to date, the returns on global equities markets have dropped from 15% (in July) to ca. 11% at time or writing which is a downward reprice of the markets by ca. 26% from the high in July this year. Notably however, trading volumes are low suggesting that many participants are holding safe-haven assets. Indeed, with US inflation at 3.7% and US 10 year bond yields at 4.9%, who can blame them. Similarly, we are seeing money market funds providing 3 to 4% in yields, so the parking of new capital in risk-off assets seems to be a prevalent feature of current market conditions.
As always, we take the long view on globally diversified investments. In today’s (relatively) high or normal interest rate environment, we continue to see fair value in across global equities (fPE’s falling to 15.8), a return towards fair value for US equities (fPE = 17.3) and as noted when we compare the stock market capitalisation with US GDP. Just to highlight one important point, when we strip out the capitalisation of the magnificent 7 (AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, TSLA, NFLX and Meta), and apply equal weight to all US500 stocks, we see and negative -0.8% return of the combined businesses, YTD. Something to ponder. No surprise then when we see the price correction due to prolonged, higher, interest rates but this highlights the importance of maintaining our outlook on global equities.
Our view, on global bonds has also changed. As mentioned, the US 10 year treasury is now yielding 4.9%, its highest since 2007, which is attractive when compared to the average dividend yield of 2.3% for risk assets. Therefore, with bond yields at current levels, and interest rates almost at their forecast apex, this asset class now looks more attractive than in recent years. Our cautious view on lower volatility portfolios is augmented by money market funds, currently yielding ca. 3.85% and hedge fund positions; all in all, providing some degree of protection in the current volatile climate.
Sources: Central Banks: Federal Reserve, ECB, CBOI, Monthly Market updates from Vanguard, Zurich New Ireland & Bloomberg & Davy Select. All views and details contained are for information purposes only, are subject to change & are not advice. We recommend you seek independent clarification for your particular circumstances. Lifetime Financial Planning makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness nor suitability of any of the information contained within and will not be held liable for any errors, omissions or any losses arising from its use.
